Relegation Predictor

JulianAnalytics

2025/26 SEASON
Most Likely to be Relegated
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
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Matchweek
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Predicted safety line
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Historical avg safety line
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Games Left

Relegation Probability by Team

Historical 18th-Place Finishes

Relegation Battle

Teams with any relegation probability, plus those within 6 points of danger.

Pos Team Pld Pts GD Predicted Pts Relegation %

Relegation Probability Evolution 2025/26

How It Works

Each remaining match is simulated using a Poisson model for goal scoring, then a Monte Carlo method repeats the entire remaining season 10,000 times to calculate the probability of relegation for every team.